// MARKET OUTLOOK · FREE TO READ

Weekly & Monthly S&P 500 Outlook

Free weekly and monthly S&P 500 outlook from ORBIT: 20 years of seasonal history and the presidential cycle, set against what the market is doing now.

MONTHLY OUTLOOKWEEKLY OUTLOOK
October CURRENT
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2026
Fade the pullback; Mid-Term October seasonality points to a powerful rally.
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of Oct 12Mid-Term October seasonality targets SPX +3.52% with a 73% win rate.→ Week of Oct 5Mid-Term October seasonality is a 73% win-rate tailwind — buy the leaders.→
September
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER 2026
September averages -1.94% in Mid-Term years with a 40% win rate, one of the weakest months of the cycle.
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of Sep 28Favor IBIT and PLTR on standout seasonals; use SPX dips to position for the Oct-Nov ramp.→ Week of Sep 21Mid-Term September averages -1.94% — fade the bounce, buy the strong-seasonal dip.→ Week of Sep 14Mid-Term September SPX averages -1.93% — favor PLTR, HOOD, IBIT; fade SPY/QQQ.→ Week of Sep 7Raise The Shields — but buy HOOD/NVDA on September weakness→
August
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
AUGUST 2026
Mid-Term Augusts average -0.05% but finish higher 67% of the time: frequent small gains, occasional sharp drops.
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of Aug 31NVDA 80% Aug seasonal — buy the dip→ Week of Aug 24NVDA 80% Aug win rate — buy the dip→ Week of Aug 17SPX August win rate 67% — buy dips, ignore Raise The Shields.→ Week of Aug 10SPY 66.3 RSI with bearish divergence — trim, don't chase.→ Week of Aug 3SPY $746.81 — buy the August dip, target +2.2% weekly move.→
July
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
JULY 2026
July averages +2.44% in a normal year but only +0.59% in Mid-Term years, with a 47% win rate.
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of Jul 27SPY Bullish→ Week of Jul 20Diamond Hands active — favor XLF, XLV, XLRE→ Week of Jul 13Load the boat on XLV — healthcare's July edge is unmatched.→ Week of Jul 6SPX July seasonal 80% win rate, load the boat→
June
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
JUNE 2026
Bullish — XLK leads with 65% seasonal win rate.
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of Jun 29Favor TLT, fade XLF.→ Week of Jun 22Favor TLT, fade GLD — rates seasonals flip.→ Week of Jun 15Diamond Hands but Mid-Term June avg -1.94%→ Week of Jun 8Bullish — XLRE leads with 80% seasonal win rate.→ Week of Jun 1Cautious — Watch & Wait signal.→
May
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
MAY 2026
Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up.
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of May 25Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up.→ Week of May 18Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up.→ Week of May 11Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up signal active.→ Week of May 4Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up.→
April
MONTHLY OUTLOOK
APRIL 2026
Cautious — Seasonal tailwind vs technical breakdown
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Week of Apr 27Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up.→ Week of Apr 20Cautious — ANCHOR Shields Up.→ Week of Apr 13Cautious — ANCHOR Exit signal active.→ Week of Apr 6Cautious — ANCHOR Exit signal active.→