ORBIT Monthly - July 2026 — Normally one of the year's best months, but the Mid-Term cycle cuts its edge to a coin flip.
The Seasonal Case
Over the last 20 years, July has been one of the most reliable months for the S&P 500: an average gain of +2.44%, higher in 80% of years. The presidential cycle changes that picture. In Mid-Term years, July averages +0.59% and finishes higher in only 47% of 15 cycles. The month still leans positive, but the cycle takes most of the edge away. History points to a modest July, not a strong one.
The Path Ahead
The months after July are where the Mid-Term year usually turns difficult. August is flat on average (-0.05%, higher in 67% of cycles), and September is one of the weakest months of the cycle, averaging -1.94% with a 40% win rate. Then the pattern flips: October averages +3.52% and finishes higher in 73% of Mid-Term years, one of the strongest months of the four-year cycle. July sits at the start of the seasonal soft patch that usually comes before that turn.
Where the Seasonal Edge Is
Among the names ORBIT tracks, the strongest July records belong to large-cap growth and the broad market. AAPL has finished July higher in 90% of years, XLRE in 89%, QQQ, DIA and XLI in 85%, and SPY, XLK and XLV in 80%. The weakest July records are in commodities and energy: NATGAS 30%, TSLA and USO 50%, XLB 55%, COPPER and GDX 60%.
The Month's Calendar
- Wednesday July 8: FOMC meeting minutes.
- Tuesday July 14: June CPI (headline forecast 3.8% y/y, down from 4.2%; core 2.8%). Fed Chairman Warsh testifies to Congress on July 14 and 15.
- Wednesday July 15: PPI.
- Wednesday July 29: FOMC rate decision and press conference (rate expected unchanged at 3.75%).
- Thursday July 30: Advance Q2 GDP (forecast 2.1%) and PCE inflation.
ORBIT Seasonals — July 2026
| Strongest July record | Weakest July record |
|---|---|
| AAPL — 90% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 3 | NATGAS — 30% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 5 |
| XLRE — 89% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 3 | TSLA — 50% win rate · Seas 7 · Tech 8 |
| QQQ — 85% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 6 | USO — 50% win rate · Seas 3 · Tech 2 |
| XLI — 85% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 8 | XLB — 55% win rate · Seas 8 · Tech 3 |
| XLV — 80% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 7 | COPPER — 60% win rate · Seas 8 · Tech 3 |
Seasonal (Seas) and technical (Tech) scores are out of 10. Technical scores from the ORBIT scan on June 30.
July's history argues for staying invested without stretching. In Mid-Term years the month has been close to a coin flip, and the two months that follow are historically among the weakest of the cycle. The seasonal edge is concentrated in large-cap tech and the broad index, while commodities carry the weakest July records. The month's main tests are CPI on July 14 and the Fed decision on July 29.