ORBIT Monthly - September 2026 — One of the weakest months of the Mid-Term year, and the doorway to its strongest stretch.
The Seasonal Case
September is already a soft month in a normal year: the S&P 500 averages -0.5% and finishes higher in 55% of the last 20 years. In Mid-Term years it is much weaker. The average falls to -1.94%, nearly four times the normal decline, and the month finishes higher in only 40% of 15 cycles. Of all the months in the Mid-Term year, September carries one of the heaviest seasonal headwinds.
The Path Ahead
What follows September is the reason the month matters. October in Mid-Term years averages +3.52% with a 73% win rate, and November +2.26% with a 79% win rate. December is flat (-0.04%, 57% win rate), and January of the Pre-Election year averages +4.21%, higher in 86% of cycles. Historically, September has been the last weak month before the strongest four-month stretch of the presidential cycle.
Where the Seasonal Edge Is
Few names have a strong September record. Among those ORBIT tracks, PLTR has finished September higher in 80% of years (a shorter history, since 2020), WMT in 68%, NVDA in 65%, INTC in 63%, and GOOGL, SPY, RSP, XLI and XLU in 60%. The weakest September records are spread across real estate, semiconductors and speculative growth: XLRE 30%, AMD 32%, ARKK 36%, XBI 37%, and BTC, KWEB and XLC 38%. Gold, gold miners and oil (GLD, GDX, USO) sit at 40%.
The Month's Calendar
- Tuesday September 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 55.2).
- Friday September 4: August jobs report (forecast +55K; unemployment rate 4.1%).
- Thursday September 10: PPI.
- Friday September 11: August CPI (headline forecast 3.4% y/y; core 2.4%).
- Wednesday September 16: FOMC rate decision with new economic projections and press conference (forecast 4.00%, up from 3.75%).
- Wednesday September 30: Final Q2 GDP (forecast 1.5%) and PCE inflation.
ORBIT Seasonals — September 2026
| Strongest September record | Weakest September record |
|---|---|
| PLTR — 80% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 8 | XLRE — 30% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 3 |
| WMT — 68% win rate · Seas 7 | AMD — 32% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 3 |
| NVDA — 65% win rate · Seas 7 · Tech 5 | ARKK — 36% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 10 |
| INTC — 63% win rate · Seas 9 | XBI — 37% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 5 |
| GOOGL — 60% win rate · Seas 8 · Tech 3 | BTC — 38% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 7 |
Seasonal (Seas) and technical (Tech) scores are out of 10. Technical scores from the ORBIT scan on August 31.
September's history argues for defence and patience. In Mid-Term years it has been one of the weakest months of the cycle, and few names have a reliable September record. The stronger argument is what comes next: October, November and January have historically been among the best months of the four-year cycle. The Fed decision on September 16, with a rate increase forecast, is the month's main event.