ORBIT Weekly - Week of Mon Oct 19 to Fri Oct 23, 2026

Neutral-to-cautiously-bullish for the week. The seasonal window is open, but last week’s inflation shock and weak breadth argue for a tight range. We expect SPY to trade between 760 and 775. A close below 760 would break the seasonal thesis and signal a deeper pullback.

SPY fell 1.97% over the last five sessions, leaving it up just 0.08% for October. The drop was driven by a hot inflation report: Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-on-month against a 0.2% forecast, and PPI surged 1.3% versus the 0.6% expected. Our last weekly call leaned on the powerful Mid-Term October seasonality, but that view was overwhelmed by the data; the market sold off, so the call did not hold.

The Mid-Term October case remains statistically strong. The month averages a +3.38% return with a 73% win rate over 15 samples, far above the normal 20-year October average of +0.99%. However, with SPY up only 0.08% month-to-date, all the heavy lifting is still ahead. The path suggests any rally that does materialise could extend into November, which averages +2.26% in Mid-Term years.

The FB signal picture is split but defensive. Bearish signals outnumber bullish ones 32 to 25, with 16 neutral. Mega-cap tech is the clear leader: names like MSFT, META, AAPL and NVDA are all on FB signal bullish, keeping SPY and QQQ in bullish territory. In contrast, banks (JPM, BAC), homebuilders (ITB), small caps (IWM) and emerging markets (EEM, FXI) are all on bearish signals, showing the rally’s narrow foundation. ANCHOR is at half position in SPY, full in BTC, and out of bonds and gold, reflecting a cautious but not defensive posture. The VIX sits at 19.99, the dollar is firm at 102.01, and the 10-year yield is elevated at 5.10%, a headwind for rate-sensitive sectors.

SPY support is strongest at 769, with a 58% chance of holding through expiry. A break below that opens the door to 760, which has a 77% chance of holding. The line in the sand is 745, with a 91% probability of holding. On the upside, resistance is stacked tightly: 775 has a 39% chance of being broken, 780 just 24%, and 785 only 13%. The expected range to expiry is 749.73 to 774.27. A push above 775 would be the first sign that the seasonal bid is taking control.

The calendar is light, which can let the seasonal pattern breathe. The only notable event is Thursday’s Unemployment Claims. With the market still digesting last week’s inflation data, a sharp deviation from the recent 199K trend could move yields and equities.