ORBIT Monthly - August 2026 — A flat month on average that usually ends higher, just before the cycle's softest stretch.
The Seasonal Case
In a normal year, August is a quiet month for the S&P 500: an average gain of +0.16%, higher in 60% of the last 20 years. In Mid-Term years the average is flat at -0.05%, yet the month finishes higher in 67% of 15 cycles. That combination matters. Most Mid-Term Augusts end with small gains, but the losing years are larger than the winning ones, which pulls the average down to zero. History points to a month of small moves rather than a trend, with the risk sitting in the occasional sharp drop.
The Path Ahead
August is the last month before one of the cycle's weakest stretches. September in Mid-Term years averages -1.94% with a 40% win rate. Then the cycle turns: October averages +3.52% (73% win rate) and November +2.26% (79% win rate). The next three months usually go from the weakest part of the Mid-Term year to the strongest.
Where the Seasonal Edge Is
Among the names ORBIT tracks, NVDA has the strongest August record, higher in 80% of years, followed by GS and XBI at 70%, KWEB at 67%, and AAPL, DIA, QQQ, SPY and IEF at 65%. The weakest August records are in crypto and commodities: BTC 25%, USO and COPPER 35%, MSTR and SLV 40%, UNG 42%, XLE and XLB 45%.
The Month's Calendar
- Monday August 3: ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.0).
- Friday August 7: July jobs report (forecast +85K; unemployment rate 4.2%).
- Wednesday August 12: July CPI (headline forecast 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5%; core 2.5%).
- Thursday August 13: PPI.
- Wednesday August 19: FOMC meeting minutes.
- Wednesday August 26: Preliminary Q2 GDP (forecast 1.5%) and PCE inflation.
- Friday August 28: Fed Chairman Warsh speaks; preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls (last year -911K).
ORBIT Seasonals — August 2026
| Strongest August record | Weakest August record |
|---|---|
| NVDA — 80% win rate · Seas 10 · Tech 3 | BTC — 25% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 4 |
| GS — 70% win rate · Seas 9 | USO — 35% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 8 |
| XBI — 70% win rate · Seas 9 | COPPER — 35% win rate · Seas 0 · Tech 8 |
| KWEB — 67% win rate · Seas 6 | MSTR — 40% win rate · Seas 1 |
| AAPL — 65% win rate · Seas 9 · Tech 3 | SLV — 40% win rate · Seas 3 |
Seasonal (Seas) and technical (Tech) scores are out of 10. Technical scores from the ORBIT scan on July 31.
August's history favours patience over conviction. In Mid-Term years the month usually ends a little higher, but it is followed by one of the weakest months of the cycle, so the seasonal case for adding risk is stronger in October than in August. The best August records belong to NVDA, financials and biotech, while crypto and commodities carry the weakest. The jobs report on August 7 and CPI on August 12 are the month's main tests.